If I were to pose a question about the concentration of individual wealth over the past decade, the overwhelming consensus would likely point towards real estateThe rising property prices serve as the clearest proof of this trendHowever, as we find ourselves in the year 2025, if I were to inquire where the wealth of residents will gravitate in the next decade, would your answer still be real estate? I suspect there would be hesitation in your response, given the shifting landscape that now confronts us.

We are witnessing national property prices in decline for four consecutive years amidst oversupply, a decelerating urbanization rate, and historically low birth ratesThe fundamental factors that previously supported rising property prices have dramatically transformedIt's crucial to ponder whether the impending monetary easing in 2025 can, once again, induce a surge in real estate prices.

If we accept the notion that property prices won’t experience the significant hikes of the past, we must ask ourselves: where will our wealth flow in the coming decade or two? What new opportunities or trends will emerge? In this article, I aim to explore critical economic indicators that will shape our understanding of these transitions, alongside fresh perspectives that will challenge your preconceived notions regarding the conclusion of the "high property price era" and the future hotspots for wealth accumulation.

To accurately predict the trajectory of real estate prices, one must grasp the underlying logic and essence that drives them upward

At its core, the most basic driver is “money supply.” A straightforward yet effective reference point is the "broad money supply (M2)." Components of M2 comprise the cash circulating in society, time deposits, and current depositsPicture the money supply as a faucet, with real estate acting as a reservoirWhen the "faucet" releases water—referring to an increase in money supply—substantial funds flow into the real estate market, propelling property prices higher.

From 2008 to the present, China's GDP has risen by 97 trillion yuan while M2 has skyrocketed by 244 trillion yuanIt’s evident that M2 has expanded at a rate that far outpaces GDP growthThe question arises: where has this influx of money gone? A significant portion has funneled into the real estate market, directly pushing property prices upwardConsequently, the belief that the monetary influx in 2025 will reignite rising property values holds some merit

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Yet, have we considered why an increase in money supply led to surging property prices, rather than boosting other sectors?

The Shanghai Stock Exchange has been hanging around 3000 points, yet property prices continue to climbWhat then accounts for this discrepancy? The vital role real estate plays in economic development is key to understanding this phenomenonThe rapid growth of real estate over recent years has roots in China’s robust economic expansion and the urbanization trend that brought swathes of people into citiesDuring this process, real estate has occupied a crucial role in resource allocation, which has fueled the sector's explosive growth.

Reflecting on it, when we use our savings and bank loans to purchase real estate, is it merely to secure a roof over our heads? Clearly notIf a home were simply a shelter, buying in a less populated area would suffice; there would be no need to focus solely on major cities

What we are truly acquiring are the surrounding resources—parks, commerce, subway systems, healthcare, and educational facilities integral to a vibrant urban ecosystem.

In essence, homeowners become angel investors in their respective citiesThe labor income, savings, and future mortgage repayments invested in homebuying provide vital financial support to urban development through mechanisms such as land financeThis financial inflow translates into taller buildings, wider roads, and enhanced living conditions.

Improved urban infrastructure attracts more industries and talent, thereby inflating the value of land and properties simultaneously—creating a seemingly flawless cycle of cause and effectResidents invest in urbanization, driving property values upwards, which in turn augments their wealthIt’s within this unique framework that we begin to see why only property prices have surged in the past decade, while other asset classes lagged behind.

Given that the urbanization rate now stands at around 65%, the urbanization process is largely stagnant

What does this mean for future property price trends? There are diverse opinions: some assert that a monetary surge will usher in a minor recovery in the housing market; others contend that population decline spells doom for property valuesHere, I wish to present a radically different viewpoint that will reshape your understanding of the dynamics surrounding property price appreciation.

Let's engage in a calculations exerciseCurrent mortgage interest rates hover between 3% and 4%, while GDP growth is at 5%. This essentially means that borrowing to buy property incurs a cost of 3%. To outpace overall economic growth, property values would need to rise by 8% annuallyIn the current climate, how many properties are realistically expected to appreciate by this rate?

The implication here is that the “buying property for wealth accumulation” era is firmly in the pastTherefore, the direction of wealth must pivot toward new domains.

At this juncture, many may turn their gaze towards the stock market.

But a word of caution is necessary, as I would rather not see anyone become victim to market instability.

Long-term growth of the securities market is undeniably expected, of that there is no doubt; however, this does not imply that your equity wealth will take flight as dramatically as real estate prices did over the last decade

Three key reasons support this assertion:

Firstly, the soaring debt levels among residents pose a significant barrierThe frenzied leveraging of past years has left many in deep debt; primary focus will now center on repaying housing loans, leaving little room for stock market investments.

Secondly, real estate continues to offer appealThe mortgage and residential attributes of property remain vital considerations, making homeownership a reliable choice for many.

Moreover, the stock market cannot replicate the growth patterns seen in real estateStock markets come with risks of delistings, financial fraud, and market volatility, which vary significantly from the real estate sectorThe unpredictability associated with stocks often makes them far riskier than property investment.

By this point, you may be feeling disheartenedIf the real estate and stock markets seem unviable, what other avenues remain?

The answer lies in the realm of elderly care.

According to the 2020 Seventh National Population Census, there are approximately 280 million individuals aged 60 and above in China, representing nearly 20% of the total population.

This number is quite staggering; if current trends continue, it's plausible that, in three decades, the population aged over 60 could exceed half of society at large.

Such a trend warrants our attention—not only due to the impending challenges associated with an aging population but because this issue necessitates resolution, leading to exponential growth in related industries.

Just as the explosive rise in property prices mirrored societal trends over the past 20 years, the development of the elderly care industry will become an unstoppable wave of progress

It’s anticipated that substantial funding and a range of policy initiatives will increasingly support sectors tied to elderly care—not merely for profit potential but as a solution to a significant societal concern.

This scenario feels akin to the great Huanghe River flowing relentlessly to the sea, an unstoppable tide of change propelled by societal evolutionThis prevailing context is set to attract substantial investment into elderly careNumerous niche markets within this sector present exciting prospects for growth; for instance, the elderly healthcare industry will experience rising demand as older individuals become more health-conscious, opening vast market spaces for related enterprises.

Another example is the senior tourism sectorHaving worked hard all their lives, retirees desire to explore and enjoy their golden years, creating robust opportunities in this domain, among countless others